THE UPCOMING HARVEST SEASON MEANS FOR YOUR 2026 SUPPLY CHAIN
As we approach the new harvest season, the agricultural calendar begins to shape what 2026 will look like for buyers, processors, and exporters across the globe. For companies like REA Resources Management Ltd (RRM), this period is not just about yield — it’s about strategy, timing, and foresight.
Harvest cycles dictate everything from commodity availability to pricing trends and logistics planning. A strong season in key producing regions can ease supply pressure and stabilize prices. Conversely, delayed or reduced harvests often trigger a chain reaction — tightening supply, driving up costs, and increasing competition among buyers.
Recent surveys from NAERLS (National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services) show that during the 2025 wet season, production of key food crops like rice, maize, sorghum, millet, cassava, yam and cowpea increased compared to 2024. More land under cultivation and improved farming practices are cited as contributors to this growth.
This increased supply has already begun to ease some food prices domestically. As availability improves near the tail end of harvest, inflationary pressure on staple crops has started to moderate.
Cashew nuts is projected to rise at least by 5% output for 2025 in Nigeria, according to the National Cashew Association of Nigeria (NCAN). This is driven by more favorable weather (including mild harmattan conditions), which helps in flowering and fruit set.
Sesame production also shows gains: the AFEX 2024 Wet Season report indicates a significant increase in output, partly driven by expanded acreage under sesame and rising farmer incentives.
Expectation & Implications
Agro-exporters, importers, and supply chain planners can reasonably expect, and how to align strategically:
Larger Volumes & Lower Domestic Prices
With increased outputs in major food staples and cash crops, there will likely be more supply in local markets. That means domestic price stabilization or mild reductions for some staples, especially if export demand does not surge proportionately. Companies can leverage this by locking in procurement contracts earlier.Greater Pressure on Quality & Storage
More production will strain existing infrastructure—storage, drying, grading, and transport. If farmers and aggregators cannot keep up with post-harvest handling standards, there will be losses or quality downgrade. Forward planning must include investment in storage or partnering with providers that have good drying/quality control capacity.Supply Chain Timing Is Critical
Exporters who wait until demand peaks (late Q4) may face increased costs or delays. Lead time for logistics, certification, and shipping will be tighter. Early mapping of supply windows (knowing when harvests begin in various producing states) will provide competitive advantage.Pricing Volatility Likely
Even with higher production, global demand (especially for cashew, sesame, cocoa) may fluctuate. Weather, global inflation, currency movements and regulatory changes (e.g. export rules, quality standards) will affect pricing. So, forecasting should assume some volatility—budgeting with buffers, negotiating some fixed-price contracts if possible.Opportunities for Exporters Who Can Scale with Compliance
Exporters with robust compliance systems (quality control, traceability, certifications) will find demand in international markets willing to pay premium. Those who cannot meet those standards may be squeezed. This favors operators who invest ahead in compliance, certifications, and logistical reliability.
What RRM Can Do (and Is Doing)
Monitor crop development and weather closely for states with major cashew, sesame, cocoa production to anticipate when harvests begin and supply increases.
Strengthen quality control and post-harvest handling in our sourcing chain so as not to lose value with higher volumes.
Secure logistics capacity early: storage, packing, export documentation so that when harvest peaks, RRM can move produce without delay.
Lock sourcing contracts ahead of time with farmers, cooperatives to guarantee volumes and prices.
Budget with margin for price and scale risks (currency, input cost, freight), ensuring RRM can deliver even in tight windows.
Summary
The 2025 harvest in Nigeria has been strong in many food crops and is showing solid gains for major crops like cocoa, cashew and sesame. Approaching next season, there’s reason to expect even more supply, but with that comes risk: quality issues, logistical queue, and price volatility. For companies like RRM, we closely monitor these agricultural cycles, using insights from local networks and field data to help clients forecast better and plan smarter. The winners will be those who prepare, build compliance, and act early.
Now is the time to think ahead, not react later.
